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Comment: ChatGPT to replace 854 jobs in the dairy industry by mid-February – on the merits and risks of forecasting (Author: Volker Gruhn)

Analysts, institutions, vendors and IT service providers are falling over themselves to forecast the impact of generative artificial intelligence applications such as ChatGPT. Not a day goes by that the new technology doesn’t hit the headlines. One day the news might focus on the transformation of certain professions and industries, another day the subject matter might be far-reaching changes to the entire economy. What people often forget is that looking into a crystal ball isn’t an ideal way for businesses to determine their next course of action.

I completely made up my headline, by the way.

A quick glance at the development of mobile business shows that forecasts are almost never 100% precise. Who back in early 2007, after the unveiling of the first iPhone, would have accurately predicted the staggering rise of smartphones and apps? Who would have forecasted the billions that could be made in this industry? Who would have foreseen the Apple-Google duopoly? Once again we find ourselves at the start of a new development with barely any concept of the full potential. We don’t know what AI applications will ultimately be capable of, nor are we aware of their limitations. We can’t tell what implications AI will have on society.

At the moment, the generative AI landscape is more of a rough sketch than a detailed roadmap. Applications are disappearing as fast as new ones are appearing. Today’s revolution is tomorrow’s state of the art – or a wrong turn that is quickly forgotten. But that doesn’t mean that businesses can ignore the issue until the market has settled down. This kind of attitude jeopardises competitiveness. With a steady hand on the tiller, business leaders need to navigate their enterprises through this uncertain future. They must create a culture of curiosity and learning rather than putting their faith in a specific scenario or solution. Openness, experimentation and an appetite for risk are all part of any AI project. Businesses that don’t embrace these qualities will miss out on the chance to really understand and make use of the technology’s opportunities and risks.

Employees must be trained, new talents recruited and knowledge gaps closed so that companies can make well-judged decisions on the basis of their own experiences. That might sound a little less spectacular than the grand visions put forward by the analysts. But in my view it’s the only way to thrive in a world where generative AI is going to be as present in our lives as emails and apps are today.

Or, to put it another way, instead of calling for new initiatives after every market study, businesses should rather focus on realising more projects themselves.


*Volker Gruhn, Chairman of the Supervisory Board of adesso SE


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